Browsing by Author "Isabirye, Moses"

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Changing Income Portfolios and Household Welfare in Rural Uganda
(Routledge Taylor and Francis, 2021-06-17) Kakungulu, Moses; Isabirye, Moses; Akoyi, Kevin Teopista; Hoyweghen, Kaat Van; Vranken, Liesbet; Maertens, Miet
This paper provides evidence on the heterogeneous welfare implications of rural income portfolios in eastern Uganda. We use household survey data from two-panel rounds, and fixed and random effects estimation and quantile regressions to estimate average and heterogeneous effects. While the literature mostly focuses on either income diversification or participation in non-farm activities, we distinguish between income diversification, using the Simpson Index, and off-farm income generation. We use ex-post income and poverty measures as well as an ex-ante vulnerability measure to analyse welfare effects. We find that income diversification and non-farm income generation improve household income, and reduce poverty and vulnerability. We find that it is most beneficial for poorer households with less land assets to diversify their income portfolio, while moving out of agriculture is equally beneficial at all income levels and most beneficial for households with more human capital. We find that income diversification reduces vulnerability most strongly at high levels of diversification and low levels of income while non-farm income generation reduces vulnerability at lower levels of non-farm income and increases vulnerability at higher levels of non-farm income. Our results lead to nuanced findings that bring additional insights in the literature on structural transformation and rural development.
Who should diversify and move out of agriculture? Income portfolios and household welfare in rural Uganda
(2018) Kakungulu, Moses; Teopista, Kevin Akoyi; Kaat, Van Hoyweghen; Liesbet, Vranken; Isabirye, Moses; Miet, Maertens
In this paper we present empirical evidence of the welfare effects of rural income diversification and off-farm income generation. We use household survey data from two panel rounds in rural Uganda, and fixed and random effects estimation and quantile regressions to estimate average and heterogeneous effects. While the literature mostly focuses on either income diversification or participation in off-farm activities, we specifically distinguish between income diversification, using the Simpson index of diversification, and off-farm income generation. We use ex post income and poverty measures as well as an ex ante vulnerability measure to analyze the welfare effects of income diversification out of agriculture. Our results lead to nuanced findings that complement existing insights. We find that income diversification and off-farm income generation improve household income, reduce their likelihood to be poor and reduce their vulnerability to poverty. We find quite strong average effects: a 10 percentage point increase in the Simpson index or in the share of off-farm income in the portfolio, increases per capita income with around 13 percent reduces the likelihood to be poor with around five percent. We find that it is most beneficial for poorer households with less land assets to diversify their income portfolio, while moving out of agriculture is equally beneficial at all income levels and most beneficial for households with more human capital. In addition, we find that income diversification reduces vulnerability at all income levels, but most strongly at high levels of diversification and low levels of income. Off-farm income generation reduces vulnerability at lower levels of off-farm income, while it increases vulnerability at higher levels of off-farm income generation. We conclude that income diversification serves both income growth and income smoothing while off-farm income generation mainly serves income growth. Key Words: income diversification; off-farm income; poverty; vulnerability; Sub-Saharan Africa; Uganda