Browsing by Author "Kakungulu, Moses"

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Changing Income Portfolios and Household Welfare in Rural Uganda
(Routledge Taylor and Francis, 2021-06-17) Kakungulu, Moses; Isabirye, Moses; Akoyi, Kevin Teopista; Hoyweghen, Kaat Van; Vranken, Liesbet; Maertens, Miet
This paper provides evidence on the heterogeneous welfare implications of rural income portfolios in eastern Uganda. We use household survey data from two-panel rounds, and fixed and random effects estimation and quantile regressions to estimate average and heterogeneous effects. While the literature mostly focuses on either income diversification or participation in non-farm activities, we distinguish between income diversification, using the Simpson Index, and off-farm income generation. We use ex-post income and poverty measures as well as an ex-ante vulnerability measure to analyse welfare effects. We find that income diversification and non-farm income generation improve household income, and reduce poverty and vulnerability. We find that it is most beneficial for poorer households with less land assets to diversify their income portfolio, while moving out of agriculture is equally beneficial at all income levels and most beneficial for households with more human capital. We find that income diversification reduces vulnerability most strongly at high levels of diversification and low levels of income while non-farm income generation reduces vulnerability at lower levels of non-farm income and increases vulnerability at higher levels of non-farm income. Our results lead to nuanced findings that bring additional insights in the literature on structural transformation and rural development.
Household determinants of food security in rural Central Uganda
(Academic Journals, 2020-09) Semazzi, John Baptist; Kakungulu, Moses
Food security is at the center stage in the world’s economic development debate. This concern is due to the fact that the world’s population is increasing very fast and is expected to reach 9.8 billion by the year 2050 (DESA, 2017). This will increase pressures on the environment, global food supplies and energy resources. In her article, “Food Insecurity and Food Stamp Program”, Jensen (2002) reports that, in the face of abundant supplies of food worldwide, nearly 800 million people suffered from malnutrition and undernourishment. Most of these undernourished live in low income countries. According to 2014 national population and housing census (UNHS) results, annual population growth rate between 2002 and 2014 censuses was 3.03% (UBOS, 2018). This rapid population growth will lead to acute land constraints and accelerated land degradation if not controlled. Land degradation due to deforestation, and the rapid conversion of natural vegetation into arable lands, exposing big areas to sheet erosion and reducing their productivity happens to be a threat. This problem is partly attributed to the poorly defined land ownership rights (National Environment Management Authority - NEMA, 2016). Declining soil fertility means farmers are experiencing less yields with lower value and less nutrient intensive crops. In addition, land use affects the land available for food production. For example, mining, urbanization and industrialization affect land available for food production leading to food insecurity. Use of land for cash crops also reduces land available for food production. Rural – Urban migration reduces labor available for cultivation hence decreasing food production. The overall goal of the Uganda food and nutrition Policy
Who should diversify and move out of agriculture? Income portfolios and household welfare in rural Uganda
(2018) Kakungulu, Moses; Teopista, Kevin Akoyi; Kaat, Van Hoyweghen; Liesbet, Vranken; Isabirye, Moses; Miet, Maertens
In this paper we present empirical evidence of the welfare effects of rural income diversification and off-farm income generation. We use household survey data from two panel rounds in rural Uganda, and fixed and random effects estimation and quantile regressions to estimate average and heterogeneous effects. While the literature mostly focuses on either income diversification or participation in off-farm activities, we specifically distinguish between income diversification, using the Simpson index of diversification, and off-farm income generation. We use ex post income and poverty measures as well as an ex ante vulnerability measure to analyze the welfare effects of income diversification out of agriculture. Our results lead to nuanced findings that complement existing insights. We find that income diversification and off-farm income generation improve household income, reduce their likelihood to be poor and reduce their vulnerability to poverty. We find quite strong average effects: a 10 percentage point increase in the Simpson index or in the share of off-farm income in the portfolio, increases per capita income with around 13 percent reduces the likelihood to be poor with around five percent. We find that it is most beneficial for poorer households with less land assets to diversify their income portfolio, while moving out of agriculture is equally beneficial at all income levels and most beneficial for households with more human capital. In addition, we find that income diversification reduces vulnerability at all income levels, but most strongly at high levels of diversification and low levels of income. Off-farm income generation reduces vulnerability at lower levels of off-farm income, while it increases vulnerability at higher levels of off-farm income generation. We conclude that income diversification serves both income growth and income smoothing while off-farm income generation mainly serves income growth. Key Words: income diversification; off-farm income; poverty; vulnerability; Sub-Saharan Africa; Uganda