A Mathematical Model Approach for Prevention and Intervention Measures of the COVID–19 Pandemic in Uganda
Date
2020-05-11
Authors
Mbabazi, Fulgensia Kamugisha
Gavamukulya, Yahaya
Awichi, Richard
Olupot–Olupot, Peter
Rwahwire, Samson
Biira, Saphina
Luboobi, Livingstone S.
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Cold Spring Habour Laboratory
Abstract
The human–infecting corona virus disease (COVID–19) caused by the novel severe acute
respiratory syndrome corona virus 2 (SARS–CoV–2) was declared a global pandemic on
March 11th, 2020. Current human deaths due to the infection have raised the threat
globally with only 1 African country free of Virus (Lesotho) as of May 6th, 2020.
Different countries have adopted different interventions at different stages of the
outbreak, with social distancing being the first option while lock down the preferred
option for flattening the curve at the peak of the pandemic. Lock down is aimed at
adherence to social distancing, preserve the health system and improve survival. We
propose a Susceptible–Exposed–Infected–Expected recoveries (SEIR) mathematical
model to study the impact of a variety of prevention and control strategies Uganda has
applied since the eruption of the pandemic in the country. We analyze the model using
available data to find the infection–free, endemic/infection steady states and the basic
reproduction number. In addition, a sensitivity analysis done shows that the
transmission rate and the rate at which persons acquire the virus, have a positive
influence on the basic reproduction number. On other hand the rate of evacuation by
rescue ambulance greatly reduces the reproduction number. The results have potential
to inform the impact and effect of early strict interventions including lock down in
resource limited settings and social distancing.
Description
Keywords
COVID–19, SEIR Model, Awareness, Infection Rate, Control Measures